Before the pandemic, 103 Nevada schools had chronic absenteeism rates below 10%, the level that most researchers consider healthy. That was 17.3% of all schools. In 2024-25, just 25 schools cleared that bar -- 3.6% of the total. An 80% collapse in the state's supply of well-attended schools.

The crisis is not just that rates went up. It is that the entire distribution shifted. The typical Nevada school now has a chronic rate that would have been considered alarming six years ago, and the schools that once defined "good attendance" have all but disappeared.

Where the schools went

In 2018-19, the distribution of school chronic rates peaked in the 10-15% range. Nearly half of all schools (44.9%) fell between 10% and 20%. Another 24% were in the 20-30% range. Just 13.9% exceeded 30%.

By 2024-25, the peak has shifted to the 30-40% range. The 10-20% tier has shrunk from 44.9% to 19.7%, losing more than half its schools. The 30-50% tier has nearly quadrupled from 10.9% to 39.3%. And the above-50% tier, which held just 18 schools (3%) in 2019, now holds 70 (10.2%).

The middle has not just shifted; it has hollowed. Schools that were slightly above average in 2019 are now well above average. Schools that were below average are now average. The bar for "doing well on attendance" has risen for everyone.

The under-10% collapse

The share of schools below 10% chronic absenteeism has been devastated across every year in the dataset. It dropped from 17.3% in 2018-19 to 12.9% in 2020-21, then cratered to 3.7% in 2021-22 and has never recovered. It stood at 2.2% in 2022-23, bounced slightly to 3.7% in 2023-24, and is 3.6% in 2024-25.

The 25 schools that still achieve sub-10% rates are disproportionately charter schools. Coral Academy campuses, Doral Academy locations, and Somerset Academy schools cluster below 10%. Among traditional schools, the survivors tend to be small rural campuses or specialized programs. The broad-based category of "well-attended neighborhood schools" has functionally ceased to exist in Nevada.

A structural shift, not a temporary spike

Temporary crises produce spikes that revert. The COVID disruption spiked chronic rates in 2020-21 and peaked them in 2021-22. But the distribution has not reverted. It has stabilized at a dramatically worse level. The 2024-25 distribution is closer to the 2021-22 crisis distribution than to the 2018-19 baseline.

That pattern does not prove why attendance changed, but it does show the problem is no longer a one-year spike. The distribution has remained much closer to the crisis years than to the 2018-19 baseline, and the definition of "normal" attendance has changed.

The practical consequence: Nevada now needs to think about chronic absenteeism as an elevated baseline, not a short flood. Interventions designed to address a temporary crisis -- surge staffing, home visit blitzes, short-term partnerships -- may be insufficient for a structural problem. What the state needs instead is a more durable attendance strategy, starting from the reality that the old normal has not returned.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.